[Cialug] IHDC: EdgeBCC

[Stephen Hawkins]

CIAlug,

On Friday 25 July 2008 03:56:48 PM John Lengeling wrote:
>
> Of course people are betting on California having a major earthquake
> before Iowa...it will come some day.
>

The Hayward Fault (the one that runs down the east side of San Francisco Bay 
is waaaay over due.  The population density is very high and many of the 
buildings (especially in the northern half) are old. The damage from a 7 or 
larger will be catastrophic.  The 7.2 in 1989 was closer to the coast and 
about 40 miles south or there.

When I moved to Iowa I ask a friend who is a research seismologist at U.C. 
Berkeley Seismological Lab about earthquakes and Iowa.  Below is his 
response.

-----------------------------------
Most of Iowa appears to be in Seismic Zone 0 and the USGS seismic
hazard zone maps implly that the seismic hazard is low in central Iowa
with a 10% probability that the peak ground shaking will exceed 2% g in
50 years.  According to the data in the document, geologists now
estimate the the probability for the occurrrence of another M 8
earthquake is 7-10% within the next 50 years and at a distance of 750
km (New Madrid to Boone) the probability that the ground shaking will
exceed 2% g may increase slightly.  However, the 2% g level of ground
shaking would not be expected to significantly increase (due to the 750
km distance to the fault).
---------------------------------

Steve
-- 
Stephen Hawkins
73 49 111 01001001
ng0g at arrl.net