I agree with the fact that these predictions keep coming up and fading away. However there have been other things that people thought would die that kept not until the needed tech reached the point were it could happen. <div>
<br></div><div>For example, books used to be very rare and completely handwritten, then came the printing press so they were a bit more accessible but far from widespread and handwritten manuscripts didn't go completely away, however things have since reached the point with the tech that you don't see handwritten books any longer.<br>
<div><br></div><div>So were we are at now there are some very large significant hardware advances that make this sort of transition more likely than ever... the smart phones/PDAs/iPod-Ts are much more advanced/user friendly than things 10+ years ago.</div>
<div><br></div><div>I get a lot more "work and play" done with my Touch than I expected when I got it, and I had fairly high hopes for the product. And the functionality I get out of it is light years beyond the old Palm I had back in the later 90s <br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 5:40 PM, Brandon Griffis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:brandongriffis@gmail.com">brandongriffis@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
<span style="color:navy"><span style="font-family:Prelude, Verdana, san-serif">You could be right in your predictions (I'm writing this on my Palm Pre), but I have to take your predictions (email dead/replaced & smartphones replacing netbooks/small laptops) with a grain of salt as I've heard them every year (and said them myself once or twice) since 1996 (when I was 16).<br>
<br>The prediction is sound on paper, but historically seems to fall apart in attempted application. It basically boils down to "people are comfortable with what they know". And while your point of the early 20 somethings is well made we've got another 20+ years until they're a majority and able to actually direct that migration.<br>
<br>But, I've been wrong about email being dead in the past, so it's entirely possible I'm wrong about it not being dead anytime soon now. I certainly personally believe email needs to die in a fire (the irony of saying this *in* an email is not lost on me BTW), I just don't think it'll happen anytime soon.<br>
<br>-B<br><br></span><span><div style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#999999">-- Sent from my Palm Prē</div><br></span><hr align="left" style="width:75%"><div><div></div><div class="h5">Matthew Nuzum wrote:<br>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 9:18 AM, Brandon Griffis <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:brandongriffis@gmail.com" target="_blank">brandongriffis@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left:1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204);margin:0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex">
I've had google wave for about a month now, but haven't played with it much. It's not for not trying, but it just seems rather useless. I don't think it'll replace "classic" email (at least not in its current form) as it doesn't have the same kind of features as email, and doesn't interact across different (read "non-google") servers. <br>
</blockquote></div><br>My experience has been about the same but I think you're wrong about it replacing classic email. Email is as dead as snail mail. Who picks up a pen and writes a letter these days? My grandmother does. Few other people do and it's considered a very formal method of communication now.<br>
<br>This is the way people in their early 20's and younger view email. This is both from my personal observation and also has been shown through other's research. (see some links below)<br><br>The netbook is a transitionary device. Soon everyone will have a mobile phone that can keep them in touch with people and the information they need. Then they won't need netbooks anymore. Email is the same thing. It is a technology that fills the gap between one thing (paper mail) and whatever comes next. And I think the increase of connected devices will be the catalyst for email decreasing in importance.<br>
<br>I don't think email will be replaced by Google wave but it is an interesting experiment that combines some of the benefits of email, the immediacy of instant messaging and the richness of the web. I expect that Google Wave, Gmail and Google Talk will combine into a single service at some point.<br>
<br>Remember, you heard it here first. ;-)<br><br>/me has always been a bit of a futurist<br><br>references: <br><cite><a href="http://arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/10/7877.ars" target="_blank">arstechnica.com/old/content/2006/10/7877.ars</a><br>
</cite><cite><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227721,00.html" target="_blank">www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,227721,00.html</a><br></cite><cite><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4719083.stm" target="_blank">news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4719083.stm</a><br>
</cite><cite><a href="http://www.useit.com/alertbox/" target="_blank">www.useit.com/alertbox/</a><b>teen</b>agers.html</cite><br><cite>(just search google, you'll find plenty of reports)<br clear="all"></cite><br>-- <br>
Matthew Nuzum<br>
newz2000 on freenode, skype, linkedin, <a href="http://identi.ca" target="_blank">identi.ca</a> and twitter<br>
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